Tim Henderson for SC Daily Gazette
Immigration buoyed population in large counties, agricultural Midwest
New census estimates show impact of asylum-seekers, other new immigrants
Immigration was the biggest factor in population growth for many booming Sun Belt counties as well as for the agricultural Midwest, according to a Stateline analysis of new U.S. Census Bureau county estimates.
The analysis shows the significant impact immigration had between mid-2020 and mid-2024 in fast-growing states such as Arizona, Florida and Texas, as well as how it boosted growth or minimized population loss across the country.
The surge of newcomers to the United States was the primary driver in population changes for 38% of counties nationwide and for most counties in states across a large swath of the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and North Dakota. Immigration also was the largest growth factor in most counties in Louisiana and Massachusetts.
In Iowa, immigration more than doubled population growth in the two counties that surround the state capital of Des Moines and Iowa City. Local advocates are planning to bolster services for new arrivals.
The census estimates released Thursday are the first at the county level to use a new method that tries to count asylum-seekers and other immigrants based on government data on green cards, visas, international students, refugee admissions and border releases.
Eric Jensen, a senior research scientist for the Census Bureau, said the new immigration estimates will be tweaked next year to better account for where asylum-seekers and refugees may have eventually settled.
In Texas, where Houston’s Harris County saw the nation’s largest population growth, the immigration of more than 260,000 people accounted for the bulk of the roughly 278,000-person increase. The rest came largely from births.
The new numbers have helped clarify how much of the state’s growth has come from immigration, said Texas state Demographer Lloyd Potter.
“We’ve been saying for a while now, where are all these people coming over the border? They’re not showing up in census data,” Potter said.
Florida’s Miami-Dade County, home of Miami, had the state’s largest population growth since 2020. But the county would have shrunk without the immigration of almost 321,000 people to offset more than 205,000 people who moved away.
Florida has complained for many years that new immigration was not reflected accurately enough in population estimates, said Richard Doty, a research demographer for the state’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida.
“From a Florida perspective, the big news is the dramatic increase in their population estimates driven entirely by the Census Bureau’s revised estimates of [immigration],” Doty said. The change increased Florida and U S. population estimates not just for the current year but also for all years since 2020, he said.
Immigration was the largest factor for five of the nation’s top 10 growth counties, which included Arizona’s Maricopa County, home of Phoenix; Nevada’s Clark County, home of Las Vegas; and Florida’s Hillsborough County, where Tampa is located.
Newcomers from around the country were the biggest factor in the other top 10 counties, including Collin, Denton, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties in Texas, as well as Florida’s Polk County, south of Orlando.
Those Texas counties are fast-growing exurbs of Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston with a lot of new housing developments, Potter said.
“That creates its own kind of issues. People are moving in, bringing a couple of cars, and they’re going to need retail and a whole range of infrastructure and transportation,” Potter said.
Nationwide, 278 counties in 42 states and the District of Columbia would have shrunk in population were it not for immigration.
They include: Florida’s Orange and Broward counties along with Miami-Dade; Washington state’s King County, where Seattle is located; Dallas County in Texas; Middlesex County in Massachusetts, near Boston; Ohio’s Franklin County, which includes Columbus; Salt Lake County in Utah; Middlesex County, New Jersey; and Sacramento County, California.
Immigration also helped stem population losses in many counties that ended up shrinking anyway: Los Angeles County in California lost more than 260,000 people since 2020, but the losses would have been much larger without about 257,000 new immigrants.
Louisiana’s Jefferson Parish, in the New Orleans metro area, lost almost 14,000 people since 2020, but the loss would have been more than double if not for 16,000 new immigrants. Public schools there have been plagued by absences amid fears of immigration raids under the Trump administration’s plans for mass deportation, according to press accounts.
Immigration also minimized population loss in 958 counties in 47 states, including: Chicago’s Cook County, Illinois; four New York City boroughs; Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania; suburban Prince George’s County in Maryland; Detroit’s Wayne County, Michigan.
Polk County, Iowa, which includes Des Moines, saw most of its growth of almost 24,000 people from new immigration. The county plans a welcoming center for immigrants in Des Moines, called Global Neighbors, but the county also has been roiled by mostly false rumors of immigration raids.
Mak Sućeska, who will direct operations for the center, is a refugee from Sarajevo in the former Yugoslavia who arrived in the United States in 1993. At an event this week in Iowa City, he described the planned $4 million center as “a space for refugees and immigrants to call home.”
Iowa City in Johnson County, another area where immigration more than doubled population growth since 2020, is also interested in more immigrant services, said Peter Gerlach, executive director of the Iowa City Foreign Relations Council, speaking at the March 12 event.
“It’s really important to learn from each other, from like-minded communities, about how we can support and create welcoming communities,” Gerlach said, especially given “the ways in which our refugees and immigrants are being targeted.”
Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.
TIM HENDERSON
Tim Henderson covers demographics for Stateline. He has been a reporter at the Miami Herald, the Cincinnati Enquirer and the Journal News.
The latest on immigration enforcement from the Trump Administration:
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This weekend, the Trump Administration deported ruthless terrorist gang members — illegal immigrants who invaded our country and brought unspeakable devastation to our communities — as part of President Donald J. Trump’s utilization of every possible tool to protect the safety and security of the American people and reverse the damage done by years of feckless Democrat leadership.
This bold, necessary action was immediately heralded by administration officials, members of Congress, and the American people:
Vice President JD Vance: “There were violent criminals and rapists in our country. Democrats fought to keep them here. President Trump deported them.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “We have sent 2 dangerous top MS-13 leaders plus 21 of its most wanted back to face justice in El Salvador. Also, as promised by @POTUS, we sent over 250 alien enemy members of Tren de Aragua which El Salvador has agreed to hold in their very good jails at a fair price that will also save our taxpayer dollars. President @nayibbukele is not only the strongest security leader in our region, he’s also a great friend of the U.S. Thank you!”
Border Czar Tom Homan: “The Biden Administration released thousands of Venezuelan Tren de Aragua criminals into the US. They have committed armed robberies, sex trafficked young girls, attacked US citizens, assaulted our police and raped and murdered young women and children. But now, thanks to the American people, we have President Trump! Last night, 238 Tren de Aragua members along with 21 MS13 gang members, were deported from this country adding to the thousands of criminal aliens already deported. Under President Trump’s leadership, this country is becoming safer every day. With each criminal illegal alien being deported, neighborhoods are becoming safer. Criminal illegal aliens, gang members and national security threats can try to hide with the help of sanctuary cities, however, know this, ICE will not stop until they are found and deported. This important work, that ICE is doing will continue while Attorney General Pam Bondi takes the sanctuary jurisdictions to court. We have much more to do AND IT WILL BE DONE!!!”
Sen. John Barrasso: “Deporting violent criminals, rapists, terrorists, and drug dealers who came to America illegally is commonsense. Thank you President Trump for making America safer.”
Sen. Tom Cotton: “President Trump campaigned and won on making Americans safer. The deportation of depraved Tren de Aragua savages is the first step towards repairing our country after years of open border policies.”
Sen. Chuck Grassley: “Another day, another judge unilaterally deciding policy for the whole country. This time to benefit foreign gang members If the Supreme Court or Congress doesn’t fix, we’re headed towards a constitutional crisis. Senate Judiciary Cmte taking action”
Sen. Mike Lee: “Do you miss the foreign terrorists now that Trump has deported them? I don’t”
Sen. Markwayne Mullin: “You’d think everyone would believe this, but we’re facing another 80/20 issue... I 100% support the Trump admin’s effort to deport violent illegal aliens from the United States of America. This includes Venezuelan gang members.”
Sen. Eric Schmitt: “While you slept, your government sent three planes full of Tren de Aragua and MS-13 thugs to the beautiful prisons of El Salvador. Thanks to the leadership of this administration—and our friend @nayibbukele—America is safer today than it was yesterday.”
Rep. Brian Babin: “Judge Boasberg is endangering Americans! He blocked the deportation of violent Tren de Aragua gang members—rapists, murderers, and thugs. No judge should have the power to override @POTUS’ national security decisions.”
Rep. Lauren Boebert: “Democrats in Colorado called the threat of Tren De Aragua a ‘figment of imagination.’ Thank you @POTUS and President @NayibBukele for doing what’s necessary to keep Americans safe!”
Rep. Andrew Clyde: “Let me get this straight… Joe Biden could blatantly violate our immigration laws to flood our country with criminal illegal aliens—but President Trump can’t deport them?”
Rep. Mike Collins: “It’s ridiculous that a Democratic president can import violent gang members, but a Republican president can’t deport them.”
Rep. Eli Crane: “The activist judges were suspiciously quiet when Joe Biden enacted all the policies that led to gang members ENTERING America. How’s that work? Only vocal when President Trump DEPORTS them?”
Rep. Byron Donalds: “These are criminal aliens to our nation. These are gang members, murderers, and rapists. Under President Trump, they are rightly being arrested and deported, but the left wants them to stay. We are Making America Safe Again”
Rep. Lance Gooden: “Democrats gave illegal criminals luxury hotels. President Trump gave illegal gang members a one-way ticket to the world's most feared prison. Thank you, President @nayibbukele and El Salvador!”
Rep. Wesley Hunt: “It is incredible to see Democrats defend Tren De Aragua and MS-13 members. Tom Homan says these flights will continue. The Trump administration will NOT stop until every last criminal alien is out of this country!”
Rep. Darrell Issa: “The day @realDonaldTrump returned to the White House, America started sending criminal illegals out of our country.”
Rep. Nick Langworthy: “Radical Left Democrats put our country in danger every single day and made every state a border state. That ended the day President Trump took his oath. He is cleaning up our country and making America safe again.”
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis: “Thank you to President Trump & El Salvador President Bukele for getting these dangerous gang members removed from the United States. Shame on ACLU for working to shield these foreign gangs who have wreaked havoc & committed heinous crimes in our country from deportation.”
Rep. Addison McDowell: “Yesterday, an Obama-appointed judge ruled that two flights carrying rapists and murderers from the Tren de Aragua gang be turned around & brought back to the U.S. This is flat out disgusting and I’m glad @realdonaldtrump is moving full steam ahead.”
Rep. Mary Miller: “The government’s first duty is to protect its people. President Trump stands in sharp contrast to the Biden regime and the entire Democrat Clan—they’ve completely failed America. Now, they’re watching what real leadership looks like. This is how it’s done”
Rep. Ralph Norman: “These are gang leaders, rapists, and murderers who thought they could find refuge in America. NOT ANYMORE!!”
Rep. Scott Perry: “Why did an activist judge try to stop the deportation of illegal, criminal migrants - hardcore rapists, gang members, and cartel / drug traffickers - who not only broke laws in their own country before invading our Nation, but came here to break ours as well?”
Rep. Chip Roy: “Judge Boasberg should be on a plane to Houston to sit with Alexis Nungaray & explain why we must keep TDA gang members who killed her daughter. Radical progressive Dems endangered us by fueling an invasion of our communities. Trump is right to take quick action to reverse it.”
Rep. María Elvira Salazar: “BRAVO @nayibbukele and President Trump! Bukele is an expert at LOCKING UP every gang member, murderer and criminal. It’s great to see us working with our allies in the hemisphere again to get the thugs out of the USA.”
Rep. Keith Self: “Incredible. All we needed was a new President.”
Rep. Greg Steube: “Thank you, President Trump and President Bukele, for taking a zero-tolerance approach to criminal illegal immigrants and terrorists. The Trump administration secured a deal with El Salvador to extradite and imprison Tren de Aragua gang members who exploited Biden’s open-border disaster. No country should tolerate terrorists and criminals roaming free. This is how you lead with strength.”
Rep. Marlin Stutzman: “Cartel members who engaged in kidnapping, sexual abuse of children, robbery, and aggravated assault on a police officers belong in prison. Anyone standing in the way of their deportation and jailing is no friend of our country. Glad these criminals are off of our streets.”
Rep. Tom Tiffany: “First, Democrats allowed Tren de Aragua members into our country. Now, a rogue judge and Democrats are fighting to keep them here. Why are they protecting illegal gang members instead of U.S. citizens?”
Rep. Derrick Van Orden: “I am not sure Americans understand how amazingly terrible this rogue judge’s ruling was. He wanted to keep violent criminal illegal aliens, including rapist, in the United States. @realDonaldTrump & @JDVance are protecting Americans.”
Rep. Randy Weber: “The only words Democrats should be saying right now are: ‘Thank you, President Trump, for taking action to get terrorists out of our country.’ These are dangerous thugs who despise everything America stands for. God bless President Trump.”
Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares: “Radicals want you to believe Trump is acting illegally by deporting Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang. These aren’t U.S. citizens—they’re violent criminals who exploited Biden’s border failures to terrorize Americans. I’ll always fight for the rule of law.”
America First Legal: “President Trump has deported 238 criminals in the violent Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to El Salvador to be imprisoned in CECOT, the country’s maximum-security prison. Tren de Aragua is a real and present danger, and President Trump’s decisive action will protect Americans.”
Retired CIA Senior Operations Officer Rick de la Torre: “President Trump’s invocation of the Alien Enemies Act to expel Tren de Aragua (TdA) gang members from U.S. soil is not only the right move—it’s a long-overdue strike against a growing national security threat.”
Attorney Mike Davis: “Amen. For 4 years, Democrats pretended grandmas trespassing into the Capitol were a graver threat than foreign terrorists invading America. Robbers, rapists, and murderers. President Trump is fulfilling his constitutional duty, as commander-in-chief, to repel foreign invasion.”
Commentator Joe Pagliarulo: “The Trump Administration is sending back violent gang members ... Everybody in the United States, no matter which side you are on politically, should agree that they should go back.”
Discovery Institute Senior Journalism Fellow Jonathan Choe: “This is what awaits violent criminal illegals in America. Look at this recent batch of Tren De Aragua gang members deported to an El Salvadoran prison.”
The Conservative Caucus’s Jim Pfaff: “Trump took action. While a judge blocked the deportation of Tren de Aragua criminals to Venezuela, Nayib Bukele agreed to take them into his Salvadoran prisons which are much worse for them than anything they faced In Venezuela.”
How the deportations / court rulings happened here.
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